Dakota Beacon

I have an Atmospheric and Oceanic Science degree from the Engineering School of the University of Michigan(1981), with an additional 2 years in Actuarial Science and Math at the University of Detroit. I specialize in analyzing and interpreting data, particularly weather data. Since leaving my position as chief meteorologist at WEHT-TV in Evansville Indiana in 1993, I’ve been a successful full time commodities trader. All of my trading is based on how the weather influences energy and agricultural markets. I use my expertise to accurately predict how the weather will effect things like natural gas demand/use and crop yields.

I’ve studied the science of global warming for the past 15 years, writing numerous articles for our local paper as well as interviews with a local tv station. My belief with regards to mans influence has changed during the last few years based on the latest data and information available. Until the last few years, I suspected that our burning of fossil fuels was a major contributor towards the temperature increases our planet had seen. My position then was that global warming and the increase of carbon dioxide actually had many benefits and that we should not take any actions until more data showed with certainty that we were the source of the warming and it was in fact detrimental overall to our planet and it’s creatures. Points numbered 1,2,3,4,5 and 9 below, all relating to the latest climate change science are responsible for my position change away from humans being mostly responsible for global warming.

Is the debate really over with regards to CO2 and global warming as Al Gore claims? The U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that warming is due primarily to industrial emissions of greenhouse gases. Our EPA recently classified CO2 as pollution and our House of Representatives voted 219-212 to put an expensive tax on carbon.

Is CO2 bad enough to justify spending trillions of dollars in the future to cut back?

Read these scientific facts and see if you agree:

1. There was in fact global warming in the 1980’s and 1990’s. This is the foundation of the AGW (anthropogenic global warming) theory. Problem is that 1998 is when it peaked (from a strong El Nino, a natural phenomena), even while atmospheric CO2 has continued to climb.

2. Maybe not coincidentally, global cooling the past 2 years has occurred in tandem with sunspots suddenly dropping to the lowest count in a century. The link between this solar cycle and temperatures on earth has been known but not completely understood for many years.. The Maunder Minimum (extreme solar inactivity between 1645-1710) and “Little Ice Age” is one example. During the warming of the 80’s and 90’s the sun was very active. In the last 2 years for instance, we’ve been in an historically long solar minimum with the sun having more months that averaged less than 10 sunspots/month during that time then both solar minimums during the 80’s and 90’s combined.

3. Another natural cycle just recently receiving attention from scientists, the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) which cools and warms the earth in 20-30 year cycles, has flipped from the warm phase to the cool phase.

4. AGW theory (it is just a theory) base’s it’s forecasts on climate model output. The AGW scare started in the 80’s and 90’s when these models were first built. The equations and data fed into the models have nothing to represent changes in the sun’s output (we can’t predict that element) or other natural, impossible to model influences like the PDO. This means the computer is programmed with the initial faulty assumption that increasing CO2 levels is what causes most of global warming. This over sensitivity to greenhouse gas warming (by at least a factor of 4) in the climate models is responsible for the dire predictions AGW alarmists use. Junk in junk out. We can’t forecast next month’s weather let alone next decade.

5. These same climate models have predicted widespread droughts and crop failures. Instead, food production has continued to increase. The world’s #1 corn and soybean production area, the US Cornbelt has gone the longest time in history without a widespread drought (21 years). 6. During all of earth’s past warm periods (before humans) CO2 went up AFTER it got warmer. This contradicts AGW theory which states that CO2 goes up first.

7. The warmer our planet was in the past, the MORE life it supported. Cooling just a few degrees on the other hand would cause worldwide crop losses and starvation. Another Ice Age would cause unimaginable suffering and death. 8. In the 1970’s, after 30 years of global cooling, scientists and the media had us in a global cooling scare. http://denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm During that period, CO2 was increasing. Impossible with AGW theory.

9. With the recent global cooling, Arctic ice, which was retreating in some well publicized locations has recovered.

10. CO2 is vital to every living organism on this planet.

11. CO2 is used by plants to grow bigger and faster. The increase of CO2 by 50% the past 100 years has contributed towards record crop yields and world food production. National trend line corn yields for instance, have gone from 120 bushels/acre to 155 bushels/acre in the last 18 years. With bountiful harvests like this, we can feed the world’s growing population. The problem is getting the food to them. Studies have shown that plant growth peaks with CO2 levels that are as much as 4 times that of our current 350 ppm(parts per million).

12. Greenhouses use carbon dioxide enrichment generators. Those that make a living growing plants know the benefits of increasing CO2 levels.This includes: shorter growing periods to maturity, improved crop quality and yield, increased leaf size and thickness as well as an increase in numbers and faster flowering per plant.

13. Catalytic converters, which have cut down on car pollution tremendously, reduce the toxicity of emissions from an internal combustion engine. They convert toxic CO to what was always perceived as non polluting CO2.

14. There are billions of cans/bottles of carbonated (CO2) beverages consumed each year. The beverage may be unhealthy but the CO2 won’t hurt you.

For a scientific debate to be over, it means that all the data has been collected, analyzed and interpreted with the result yielding one, single inescapable conclusion. Clearly, these recent political developments have little to do with legit science. In fact, the door was opened for this outcome when a 2007 Supreme Court 5-4 decision (liberal judges all voting for it) forced the EPA to rule that carbon dioxide is pollution.

This comes even as the science from the other side is becoming more compelling and a groundswell of experts in this field are providing more and more convincing evidence that disproves AGW theory.

We should have aggressive policies to conserve natural resources and develop alternative energy sources as well as preserve natural environments and protect all creatures on this planet. Advocates of Cap and Trade want us to think that’s why we should be for it. This bill is the biggest revenue generating proposal of our time which is why politicians are conveniently ignoring the growing evidence against AGW theory from scientists.

The worst part about spending trillions to reduce CO2 is that :

1. It will have very little effect on our climate.

2. It vilifies a beneficial gas, instead of focusing on the many REAL pollutants in the air, water and soil.

3. The money will come from you and me.

4. We will lose many jobs and businesses which go overseas to avoid this huge tax.

We the people of this great country should not have to settle for the lack of intellectual honesty, biased, partisan approach from our elected officials whose tactics include using blatant fact/truth distortion and brainwashing us to accomplish it.

We have a responsibility to expose and defeat policy’s based on lies and corruption, especially those that would create hardship for millions of Americans. Cap and Trade legislation is an example of this. It has a hidden agenda that would result in the discrimination of many people with most of us paying a high price. Hopefully, it will be stopped in the upcoming Senate vote this Fall.

Mike Maguire,

Meteorologist

Evansville Indiana

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Commodity prices, in general, continued to tumble this week.  But what most people don’t know is that it is not a market factor that is causing the tumble, but a government factor lately.  The CFTC wasn’t doing what Senator Dorgan wanted done, so his kind replaced him with a new leader. It’s funny how speculation is called manipulation when the end result is not appealing to your needs.  So, now the new leader at the CFTC says there is a problem with commodities and wants to put limits on how many contracts index funds may own.  How idiotic and un-capitalistic to limit people’s potential to legally profit in this country!  If these people had half a brain and hadn’t spent their whole life in government, they would talk to people in the trenches working in this business. Commodity futures don’t cause problems; they help avert them by seeing an oversupply or a short-fall in a commodity before we run out, thus reducing the chance of running out of that commodity by bringing profitability to the producer with plenty of lead time.

The answer to the new large index funds is very simple.  Bona-fide hedgers and small speculators, whether buyers or sellers, would continue to put up 5% margins on commodities like they have for 150 years and large registered buy only index funds would be allowed to invest in commodities, like they buy stocks, and that is to put up 50% margins.  This means the higher the market goes, the more they have to put up if they want to make continual purchases.  If they feel the market still has value at the elevated rates, they know they have to come up with more money to continue purchasing. They also have to consider the ramifications of buying into commodity futures that require you to liquidate at a finite date.  How can you control something when you are being forced to sell it in the future?

Our Senator Dorgan wants to be a hero and play Robin Hood, when in fact, he is stealing from the agricultural and energy industry of North Dakota every day, as the market liquidates over the past weeks, wondering what is next.  Take a pencil and calculate a $1.00 per bushel lost on wheat alone in North Dakota in total value over the past two weeks, as well as the value lost in oil per day, and you will see our Senator has stolen quite a bit from his constituents. Some may think this is a heartless capitalistic remark.  What the socialists that rebut this are jealous of, is what a waste of profit that many individuals of North Dakota have made from energy and grains that had went on to provide new jobs and a robust economy that is the envy of the nation with an overflowing state coffer.  The socialists would have rather seen higher energy and food prices come from “Cap and Tax” so the government could have made better use of those gains.  Karl Marx must be smiling in his grave, knowing there are people out there still believing in his cause.

Eugene Graner

President

Heartland Investor Services Inc.

Karl Marx and Socialist Everywhere….....

The North Dakota Democrat Party obtains most of their money from out of state. But it is a sad day for one of their top patrons.

The party uses that money to make commercials telling listeners to call “out of state” people who point out the facts that North Dakota Senators Dorgan and Conrad received very large amounts of contributions from Fannie Mae and Freddi Mac and tell those “out of state” folk that that is not how we do politics in North Dakota.

Over 81 percent of contributions to the ND Democrats, of over $200 per year come from out of state. If you ask them how much of the contributions under $200 come from out of state they will likely tell you “most” of those contribution are from North Dakota citizens. If you press them for an exact number the will likely claim to be unable to tell you exactly. But, if you get at least millions of dollars from out of state folks you certainly use some of that money to maintain a database of contributors even if their contributions are less than $200. This is necessary so that those contributors can be mailed solicitations for more contributions. It seems highly likely that a few strokes of the keyboard would answer the question of how much out of state money comes from donors sending less than $200 per year. Would we then find that the North Dakota Democrats are funded, maybe 90, 95 percent or more from non-citizens of ND? Is that how we do politics in North Dakota?

Anyway, a problem has arisen in ND Democrat fund raising. One of their biggest individual donors is in the Federal Slammer. “Dickey” Richard Scruggs, tobacco attorney, major Democrat donor will likely be in jail until 2015 (no known cause/effect correlation to the leaving of the ND party chairman David Strauss).

In light of the departure of Chairman Strauss, perhaps, as did the Biden and McCain campaigns, the North Dakota Democrats should return all of the money Scruggs sent to North Dakota to Scrugg’s poor wife.

Until he gets out of the slammer and starts propping up ND politicians…….Dickey’s wife might need that money.

From the Party website:

ND Democratic-NPL

State Party Headquarters

Location: Kennedy Center

1902 East Divide Avenue

Bismarck, ND 58501

Directions: Corner of 19th Street and Divide Avenue

Phone: 701-255-0460

Fax: 701-255-7823

Email:people@demnpl.com

Office Hours: 8:00 am - 5:00 pm (Monday - Friday)

Michelle Obama has a staff that is paid approximately THREE TIMES as much as Laura Bush’s staff costs. Mrs. Obama’s staff salary (not counting fringe, health care, ….) totals $1,448,500 per year

When Michelle Obama was in France it could be said that she was there on official business as she joined her husband the President at a ceremony honoring the 65th anniversary of the Normandy invasion, but for 6 days her and her daughters stayed on in Paris for personal recreation with a 20 car motorcade that included staff and security personnel. The cost to the American taxpayers is unknown as the White House refuses to divulge any financial information about Michelle and the children’s French vacation at U.S. citizen expense.

A late May 2009 first couple “date” that included dinner out and Broadway show cost the U.S. taxpayers an undetermined amount that no official of the White House would divulge. But, in light of the Air Force One joy ride for pictures of the aircraft over New York City, being documented to cost over $250,000, it is likely the “date” cost much more when you consider NY police security, transporting presidential vehicles, security staff, security staff lodging and expenses. Is it possible that the “date” cost you and I closer to $500,000?

How much did it cost to fly a pizza chef from St. Louis to Washington D.C. for Obama staff pizza?

How much did it cost to fly the Hawaiian chef and 20 hand picked entertainers to D.C. from Hawaii for the Obama’s first ever, White House Luau?

This saving the planet by reducing our carbon foot print does not come cheap. Look how the Obama family struggles to keep the oceans from rising and polar bears from dying!

Senator Byron Dorgan WAS hot on the trail of wasteful government spending:

The existing congressional committees, Dorgan says, “have not had the investigators and the time,” to give this issue the focus it deserves. “So, we have held these hearings, and the waste, the fraud, and the abuse is staggering.”

Sorry, Senator Dorgan was talking about military contract fraud back in May of 2008 when George Bush was President. All of that has come to not much. But the North Dakota Senator apparently has little concern over Michelle or Barack’s rather gigantic carbon footprint and taxpayer funded profligacy.

Why is that?

Was that extremely scary or what? Ready for that in your neighborhood?

What is it about this administration and communist backed would be tyrants?

AP writes that:

WASHINGTON (AP) - U.S. officials say Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton plans to meet ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya this week. It would be the highest-level contact the Obama administration has had with Zelaya since he was deposed last week. Zelaya is expected in Washington on Tuesday following an unsuccessful attempt to return to Honduras over the weekend that deepened the country’s political crisis. The State Department says the administration remains committed to seeing a restoration of democratic order in Honduras and deplored the use of force against Zelaya’s supporters.

The reason that Zelaya needs to get the Obama administration’s help in undermining Honduras democracy is sicintly explained by Mary Anastasia O’Grady who writes for the Wall Street Journal that:

Hundreds of emails from Hondurans flooded my in-box last week after I reported on the military’s arrest of President Manuel Zelaya, as ordered by the Supreme Court, and his subsequent banishment from the country. Mr. Zelaya’s violations of the rule of law in recent months were numerous. But the tipping point came 10 days ago, when he led a violent mob that stormed a military base to seize and distribute Venezuelan-printed ballots for an illegal referendum.

The communist leader of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez backed Zelaya, Zelaya’s illegal attempt to circumvent the Honduras constitution, and now finds an ally in Barack Hussein Obama? What is it with President Obama and tyrants? George Bush fought for the spread of true democracy. Does President Obama even support such a concept?

Brian Malony of The Radio Equalizer has some 3 minutes and 10 seconds of exclusive audio by Rush Limbaugh about Sarah Palin stepping down from leading Alaska. Palin’s speech was after the end of Rush’s Friday, July 3rd show so this might be all the public will know from Rush until after his week long golf sojourn.

From over the internet Transom….

Accomplishments of the First 100 Days of The Obamanation

1.      Offended the Queen of England

2.      Bowed to the King of Saudi Arabia

3.      Praised the Marxist Daniel Ortega

4.      Kissed Hugo Chavez on the cheek

5.      Endorsed the Socialist Evo Morales of Bolivia

6.      Announced we would meet with Iranians with no pre-conditions

7.      Gave away billions to AIG, also without pre-conditions

8.      Expanded the bailouts

9.      Insulted everyone who has ever loved a Special Olympian

10.  Doubled our national debt

11.  Announced a termination of the space defense system the day after the North Koreans launched an ICBM. 

12.  Despite the urgings of his own CIA director and the prior 42 CIA directors, released information on intelligence gathering. Announced major restrictions on interrogation techniques used on enemy combatant prisoners.

13.  Accepted without public comment the fact that five of his cabinet members cheated on their taxes and two other appointees withdrew after they couldn’t take the heat.

14.  Appointed a Homeland Security Chief who quickly identified as “dangers to the nation”, groups including veterans of the military, and opponents to abortion on demand,  and who ordered that the word terrorism no longer be used but instead referred to such acts as man made disasters. 

15.  Circled the globe so he could openly apologize for America’s greatness.

16.  Told Mexicans the violence in their country was mostly caused by illegal guns from the U.S. 

17.  Politicized the census by moving it into the White House from its Department of Commerce origins and announced ACORN [the organization under massive scrutiny amid allegations of election fraud] would manage the process. 

18.  Appointed as Attorney General the man who orchestrated the forced removal and expulsion from America to Cuba of a nine-year old whose mother died trying to bring him to a life of freedom in the United States .

19.  Salutes as heroes three Navy SEALS who took down three terrorists who threatened one American life and the next day announces members of the Bush administration will likely stand trial for torturing a terrorist who had played a part in killing 3000 Americans by pouring water over his face.

20.  Air Force One flew over New York City for a photo op without notifying local authorities causing widespread panic.

21.  Took over the American Automobile industry and handed over 50% off to the unions [because he said he owed them]. 

22.  Continued his drive for absolute gun control activities, thumbing his nose at the 2nd Amendment. 

23.  Offered travel and living subsidies in the U.S.  to Hamas activists displaced from the Gaza   Strip. 

24.  Got more airtime [TV] than Oprah Winfrey and was seldom in Washington tending to the business of State. 

25.  Announced the closure of enemy combatants detention center in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba but failed to address the issue of ‘what’ to do with the 200+ prisoners currently held there. Rumors persist that they’ll be housed on U.S.  soil… 

Other than that, we’re doing just fine.   

Only 1360 more FRIGHTENING days to go… 

25 Point Bonus Question: Fill in the Blank: It’s all _________ from here.

“Hidden in the seams of this economy is a welfare system for the richest corporations, and that ought to make your blood boil.” – Byron Dorgan, from the book, “Take This Job and Ship It” (Thomas Dunne Books, 2006).

Next time you hear Senator Conrad or Dorgan indignant about corporate welfare you should have only one reaction. Mirth. If, on the other hand they aggressively oppose Waxman/Markey (Cap and Trade) then and only then will they be truly fighting for the citizens of North Dakota because it is an economy killer and a big fat bundle of money to Democrat corporate welfare queens..

Obama, Pelosi, Dorgan, Conrad, and Pomeroy know it.

From the Wall Street Journal editorial, “The Carbonated Congress”:

Congress had to bribe every business or interest that could afford a competent lobbyist. Carbon permits are valuable, yet the House says only 28% of the allowances would be auctioned off; the rest would be given away. In March, White House budget director Peter Orszag told Congress that “If you didn’t auction the permit, it would represent the largest corporate welfare program that has ever been enacted in the history of the United States.”

and,

The revisions were demanded by coal-dependent Rust Belt Democrats to require tariffs on goods from countries that don’t also reduce their emissions. Democrats were thus admitting that the critics are right that this new energy tax would send U.S. jobs overseas. But instead of voting no, their price for voting yes is to impose another tax on imports from China and India, among others. So a Smoot-Hawley green tariff is now official Democratic policy.

From the important list of why to oppose this legislation, Stephen Spruiell and Kevin Williamson’s article A Garden of Piggish Delights:

1. The big doozy: Eighty-five percent of the carbon permits will not be sold at auction — they will be given away to utility companies, petroleum interests, refineries, and a coterie of politically connected businesses. If you’re wondering why Big Business supports cap-and-trade, that’s why. Free money for business, but higher energy prices for you.

2. The sale of carbon permits will enrich the Wall Street investment bankers whose money put Obama in the White House. Top of the list: Goldman Sachs, which is invested in carbon-offset development and carbon permissions. CNN reports:

  Less than two weeks after the investment bank announced it would be laying off 10 percent of its staff, ***Goldman Sachs confirmed that it has taken a minority stake in Utah-based carbon offset project developer Blue Source LLC. . . . “Interest in the pre-compliance carbon market in the U.S. is growing rapidly,” said Leslie Biddle, Head of Commodity Sales at Goldman, “and we are excited to be able to offer our clients immediate access to a diverse selection of emission reductions to manage their carbon risk.”

3. With its rich menu of corporate subsidies and special set-asides for politically connected industries, Waxman-Markey has inspired a new corporate interest group, USCAP, the United States Climate Action Partnership — the group largely responsible for the fact that carbon permits are being given away like candy at Christmas rather than auctioned. And who is lined up to receive a piece of the massive wealth transfer that Waxman-Markey will mandate? Canada Free Press lists:

  Alcoa, American International Group (AIG) which withdrew after accepting government bailout money, Boston Scientific Corporation, BP America Inc., Caterpillar Inc., Chrysler LLC (which continues to lobby with taxpayer dollars), ConocoPhillips, Deere & Company, The Dow Chemical Company, Duke Energy, DuPont, Environmental Defense, Exelon Corporation, Ford Motor Company, FPL Group, Inc., General Electric, General Motors Corp. (now owned by the Obama administration), Johnson & Johnson, Marsh, Inc., National Wildlife Federation, Natural Resources Defense Council, The Nature Conservancy, NRG Energy, Inc., Pepsico, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, PG&E Corporation, PNM Resources, Rio Tinto, Shell, Siemens Corporation, World Resources Institute, Xerox Corporation.

One major group of recipients of the free money being given to industry in the form of carbon permits are the electric utilities, represented in Washington by the Edison Electric Institute. Along with the coal and steel businesses, the utilities are positioned to receive a huge portion of the carbon permits — some of which will be disguised as measures for consumers — and have become one of the nation’s highest-spending lobbies, working to ensure that their interests are served by cap-and-trade.

Is this whole scam a rape of the taxpayers to payoff the politically connected? Will Senators Dorgan and Conrad “FIGHT”?

I guess, based on past evidence no. But when the election comes around fight will be every third or forth word in Senator Dorgan’s adds. Kind of weird, that.

P.S. Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs.

Another great history lesson from Dakota Beacon author Bruce Walker, writing on The American Thinker today to remind us that forgotten in the fog of our current political rhetoric is the real purpose of the Declaration of independence….to establish that Government’s Purpose is Liberty

The men who signed the Declaration of Independence represented the absolute opposite of “interest group politics” so slavishly worshipped in political science departments.  They pledged their lives, their wealth, their liberty, and their honor—everything—on a toss of the dice.  Often, even if the revolution won, these men personally lost.  The game was not about them, their economic interest, or their political ambition.  They won if America became a new order of liberty in the world.  Interest politics would have led them all to make peace with the Crown.  Moral principles led them to what Churchill would later call “blood, toil, sweat, and tears.”

HOW THE HOUSING-BANKING CRASH REALLY HAPPENED

It is amazing that if you tell a lie over and over, the national media will pick it up and turn it into what the American people who are not paying attention think is the truth. And, since so many Obama voters seem not to be in full command of the facts, the first thing out of their mouths when you question them about the economy is “eight years of Bush left this mess”, more likely it was years of Senators Dodd, Schumer, and Representative Barney Frank. And lets be frank (not Barney), what have you heard these three guys say over the last 20 years that has been proven to be true?

Only in American could a person be central in one of the most massive policy mistakes, mistakes that have resulted in untold misery, and then be put in charge of oversight of the industries you helped to destroy. The Madne$$$$$ Continues. Unencumbered by the thought process!

President (It’s not my Fault) Obama (left) and Senator (Mine Either) Schumer.

President (It’s not my Fault) Obama (left) and Senator (Mine Either) Dodd.

President (It’s not my Fault) Obama and Reprsentative (Mine Either) Frank (shorter on far-left, not being hugged by President Obama).

Bonus!! 25 Point Quiz Question: Fill in the blank: You can tell they are _____, their lips are moving.