Dakota Beacon

Three of the last four winters in the Northern Hemisphere, including the current winter, have been very cold and snowy.

Hmm.

Anthony Watts, who runs the Watts Up With That? website, recently posted a synopsis of certain aspects of the sun's activity over the last ten years. The post is worth a look, especially if you're into graphs. My objective here is to draw your attention to a couple of Watts's points and add my own.

First, a small bit of background.

Our sun's magnetic field has been tied to the global climate in research conducted by, among others, physicist Henrik Svensmark. I discussed Svensmark's work in a January 2009 article and now call attention to it because there's something curious happening with the sun. Its magnetic field strength has dropped to the lowest point since 2009. The star has settled into an uncharacteristically calm state for where it is within its normal cycle. We'll discuss what the low magnetic field could portend shortly.

As a lead-in to that discussion, let's examine a section of a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) release that Watts highlights.

May 8, 2009 -- The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a consensus decision on the prediction of the next solar cycle (Cycle 24). First, the panel has agreed that solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. This still qualifies as a prediction since the smoothed sunspot number is only valid through September, 2008. The panel has decided that the next solar cycle will be below average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90. Given the predicted date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now expected to occur in May, 2013. Note, this is a consensus opinion, not a unanimous decision. A supermajority of the panel did agree to this prediction.

"Consensus" science. Where have we heard that before?

Church of Global Warming Pope Al Gore as well as other church members and officials have for years advanced the utterly wrong notion that because agenda-pushing "scientists" had reached a "consensus" on humans heating up the planet, then humans must surely be heating up the planet. Not letting facts, evidence, knowledge, and other pesky manifestations of reality get in the way, the NOAA uses consensus science to "predict" solar activity.

Side-note: When a huge asteroid slammed into Earth 65 million years ago, the Tyrannosaurus Rex High Council consensus that T-Rex would forever rule Earth didn't stop the entire species from croaking off soon thereafter. Reality ignores consensus. Reality is reality. Science does not operate by consensus. Science lives in reality.

Who knew that scientists held such great power? The NOAA panel "decided that the next solar cycle will be below average in intensity." [Emphasis added.]

Impressive.

But the silliness extended further.

Our dear panel decided that there'd be a "maximum sunspot number of 90." Mother Nature then decided that the sun should produce far fewer than 90. Woops, that would mean that our super-scientist consensus machines were, let's see, wrong. Warmists have yet again consensused and decided themselves into an unhappy corner.

Now let's compare the NOAA's nonsense to real science.

In my January 2009 article, "Earth: It takes a licking and keeps on ticking," I wrote:

...physicist Henrik Svensmark showed that cosmic rays—energetic particles from deep space—enhance cloud development.

Why is this important? Pay attention.

1) The magnetic fields of Earth and sun shield out many cosmic rays which would otherwise reach us.

2) The more sunspots, the more intense the sun’s magnetic field.

3) So when sunspots increase, the intensified magnetic field allows in fewer cosmic rays which form fewer clouds.

4) With fewer clouds, less solar energy is reflected and we heat up.

5) When sunspots decrease, the weakened field allows in more cosmic rays which form more clouds.

6) With more clouds, more solar energy is reflected and we cool down.

Svensmark’s critics have done what agenda-driven ideologues typically do: Use only data that support their agenda. Warmist research regularly emulates Michael Mann’s discredited 1998 and 1999 “studies.” Mann omitted the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, and other unfriendly data. He heavily weighted “appropriate” temperatures to concoct major warming at the end of the 20^th century—the infamous “hockey stick” trend Pope Al has tattooed on his, um…

In early 2008, Kenneth Tapping, solar researcher for Canada’s National Research Council, predicted that if sunspots stayed low we’d get lots of cold and snow. Las Vegas, Malibu, Seattle, New Orleans, and most of the country obliged.

Real scientists describe reality using data and logic.

 
Related to my 2009 analysis, Watts points up the research of two scientists, William Livingston and Matthew Penn, who studied in the same area as Svensmark. Watts highlights a portion of a Science magazine story that covered Livingston's and Penn's work:

The last solar minimum should have ended last year, but something peculiar has been happening. Although solar minimums normally last about 16 months, the current one has stretched over 26 months—the longest in a century. One reason, according to a paper submitted to the International Astronomical Union Symposium No. 273, an online colloquium, is that the magnetic field strength of sunspots appears to be waning.
…
Scientists studying sunspots for the past 2 decades have concluded that the magnetic field that triggers their formation has been steadily declining. If the current trend continues, by 2016 the sun’s face may become spotless and remain that way for decades—a phenomenon that in the 17th century coincided with a prolonged period of cooling on Earth.

That "prolonged period of cooling?" That would be the Little Ice Age, during which the Thames River froze over in London and New Yorkers walked from Manhattan to Staten Island--on ice.

So then, why is the EPA saddling American businesses with a plethora of new "greenhouse gas" emission regulations aimed at stopping "global warming?"

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© 2011 Chuck Rogér