Dakota Beacon

Problem solving need not be difficult. Some people refer to a deliberate way of thinking as “thinking ahead.” My mom called it “thinking past the end of your nose.” I always thought “thinking ahead” was the norm for everyone and not merely an exception for the few. I have since discovered otherwise. The larger world does not think this way. Lack of application in the arena of government policymaking is so striking as to be bizarre. Too many people do not think past the end of their noses.

Think of a problem. Then, think of a solution to that problem. Pause. By way of consequence, now ask, “What happens next?” The answer to that question may determine the viability of your solution. In other words, what are the further implications of your choice?

Call this Stage One. If you concur with the solution to your problem AS WELL AS to the answer to the question of “what next,” then proceed onward to Stage Two. Pose the same question to the results of your first answer. And so forth. The idea is to mentally assess the viability of successive solutions by asking “what next?”. Or, to say it a different way, think through the solution to a problem and do it right the first time.

I consider Thomas Sowell a mentor in absentia not only for what he imparted about economics, but that he also displayed the dynamic reality of thinking beyond Stage One. In fact, one of his many notable books is titled “Applied Economics: Thinking Beyond Stage One.”

As a college freshman early in life Sowell was taught a lesson in one-stage thinking from his professor, Arthur Smithies.

The lesson went like this. Professor Smithies asked Sowell what policy he favored on a particular issue. Sowell argued with emotion in favor of Proposal A.

Professor Smithies pressed the point. “If adopted, then what will happen?” Somewhat taken back, Sowell began to unravel subsequent economic consequences he had not thought of initially. One point led to another as Smithies plied his same question over again. Slowly, Sowell began to understand that his emotional attachment to the original proposal blinded him to the economic reverberations the results of which far offset his wished-for goals of the original policy. In my case, I learned the ramifications of Stage One thinking, in turn, from Dr. Sowell and it made all the difference. In a dynamic and fluid environment, later stages of thinking reveal new ramifications of policies.

Very practical examples illustrate Sowell’s point.

New York and California taxation policies demonstrate the classic example of the failure to think beyond Stage One. Stage One: Laying heavy taxes on “greedy” corporations seemed a good thing to do -- politically. The class envy “soak the rich” mantra always gathers votes. Stage Two: Corporations knuckle under to the “pay their fair share” crowd. Concurrently, corporations begin looking for relief beyond the city and state. At first, they relocate their headquarters and senior staff. Stage Three: As the corporations grow, they position their newly developed operations outside the reach of onerous taxes and regulations. Stage Four: As corporations desert New York and California, the tax base erodes. Politicians, seeking votes and not thinking beyond Stage One, end up killing the economic goose that laid the golden egg.

Consider other decision-making examples. Choose from any one of the following as a starting point and then apply Stage One thinking: defund the police, US withdrawal from Afghanistan, US involvement in the Ukraine, implementing the Green New Deal, unilaterally applying US fiscal resources to alter the world’s weather. Any average citizen can come up with better policy decisions using Stage One thinking than have our governments. Bad decisions resulting from bad thinking for the sake of political expediency rule the day.

Thinking beyond Stage One appears so obvious, so intuitive. Yet Sowell was able to devote an entire book to the subject using one limited but specific topic: economics. Nonetheless, thinking beyond Stage One as a simple life skill may be adapted to any personal decision-making situation.

Dennis M. Patrick can be contacted at (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).