Dakota Beacon

Today Americans stare wide-eyed at the largest US internal migration -- ever. People leave the so-called “blue states” and move to “red states”. Some prefer the political climate of the red states. Others move in search of a more favorable social atmosphere.

Social and political reasons certainly count. But ultimately reasons can be traced to poor governance. People are sick and tired of the blue state economic environment – specifically the high taxes and the frittering away of their tax dollars. Bad economic policies drive cost of living higher, raise housing prices, and restrict job opportunities.

Low-tax states attract residents from all income bands, and high-tax states repel them. People vote with their feet. Most people prefer living in low-tax states, where taxpayers -- not politicians -- have more control over how money is spent.

States losing population include California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. States gaining population include Florida, Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Arizona.

We know businesses have fled these states for years. But not only do corporations and the very wealthy flee from high-tax states. Financially burdened victims from all walks of life have chosen to leave.

Transplants from liberal states do not necessarily turn their new homes blue. Do not accept the argument, “California migration turned Colorado blue.” This claim does not apply to other states. It may be true for Colorado, but for Colorado only. This liberal belief reflects wishful thinking. In other words, people leaving California, New York, and Illinois have not turned red states blue.

For example, a few years ago Democrats were salivating at the prospect of turning Texas blue. Californians transplanted to Texas are actually polling 57 percent conservative verses only 27 percent liberal. There was also a major shift of Hispanic voters in Texas toward the Republican Party. Texas seems to have become more red.

Similar shifts took place in Florida. For years Florida has trended Republican. However, Democrats have had an edge in registered voters. As a major recipient of newcomers, Florida’s Republicans passed Democrats in registered voters in December 2021 and had a 383,954 advantage by December 2022. That rose again to 436,990 by March 2025.

Internal population shifts also upended traditional Republican politics in proven red states such as Idaho and Montana. Transplants brought an influx of new conservative voters with a different profile and orientation. They are more highly educated, have professional class jobs or significant financial assets, and come from California and Washington. Having lived under liberal oppression, they are eager to support a conservative new-found freedom in their new states. They even appear more explicitly anti-liberal.

How things sort out politically in a thinly populated state like Montana, where it doesn’t take many newcomers to make a big difference, remains to be seen. But so far it seems to be working in favor of the more conservative Republicans.

It appears that the highly educated transplants from blue states can bring a more aggressive brand of conservatism with them. In some cases, as with Texas, internal migration makes red states even redder.

Here is the net effect and proverbial bottom line. Population realignment has political consequences. Reapportionment, the process of reallocating seats in Congress based on changes in population, will face America following the 2030 census.

According to the latest assessment from the American Redistricting Project’s 2030 Apportionment Forecast, 15 congressional seats will change states by the 2030 census. Nearly all the “winners” are red-leaning states. All the “losers” are blue states.

The core population patterns – great swings shifting away from the Northeast, Midwest and Pacific Coast to the South and interior West – should significantly favor Republicans, and that trend is not likely to change.

Speaking bluntly, American internal migration already points to more congressional districts for red states and fewer for blue states. In turn, this population shift will also affect the electoral college in favor of the conservative vote.

Dennis M. Patrick can be contacted at (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).