DENNIS PATRICK: COMPREHENDING LARGE NUMBERS – HOW BIG IS BIG?
How big is “big?” How much is 100? 1,000? Can anyone comprehend a million of anything?
Suppose a couple celebrated 18,262 days of married life. This is a big number, but we usually state this in a more comprehensible way such as fifty years of marriage – a golden wedding anniversary.
Large numbers are more easily understood when stated relative to a more recognizable quantity. That is another way of saying that by comparing a large number to some easily recognized point of reference seems to aid in comprehension.
Tax season is upon us as is the season for preparing the federal budget. Numbers, big numbers, will be bandied about with slight comprehension of their significance.
Suppose we want to better understand a large quantity of money – for example $1.0 trillion. One way is to transpose money into time because most people have some sense of passing time. For the sake of argument, let one dollar equal one second. Sixty seconds make up one minute and 60 minutes make up one hour. So in one hour there are 60 seconds X 60 minutes or 3,600 seconds. A 24 hour day would yield 24 hours X 3,600 seconds per hour, or 86,400 in a day. Most folks get the hang of it.
Continuing on, dividing 1,000,000 seconds (1 million seconds represents $1 million) by 86,400 seconds in a day results in a figure of 11.6 days. Remember, we are trying to conceive of dollars in terms of a comparable amount of time. Therefore, 11.6 days is the amount of time comparable to $1 million if one dollar equals one second.
Carry the example to the next level. Divide 1,000,000,000 seconds (1 billion seconds represents $1 billion) by 86,400 seconds per day produces 11,574 days – or 31.7 years. That is the equivalent of $1 billion translated into time consistent with our example.
Finally, if we divide 1,000,000,000,000 (1 trillion seconds representing $1 trillion) by 86,400 seconds per day, our arithmetic produces an astounding result. The quotient is 11,574,074 days of 31,710 years – in other words, a little more than 317 centuries. To state this in comparable terms, if one dollar was the equivalent of one second, $1 trillion would compare to 317 centuries!
Approached from a different perspective but still using simple arithmetic anyone can run their own analysis making large numbers comprehensible. The results are eye-opening. Check for yourself.
A billion minutes ago is about the time Jesus lived.
A billion hours ago mankind lived in the Stone Age.
A billion days ago no-one walked on two feet.
From this vantage point a discussion of the federal budget and the tax dollars to support it takes on real substance. We begin to understand how big is “big.”
Politicians and TV talking heads glibly toss around dollars in terms billions and trillions. Do they think we are nuts?! Where do they think all the “bacon” comes from that they freely “bring home?”
There is a lot of loose money floating around congress. This is our money – yours and mine. If left in the hands of our congressmen and senators it is at risk. Listening to our congressmen and senators speak lightly of the big bucks they oversee, the risk becomes obvious. They would much rather take our money and spend it than take less money and conserve it. To hear them caterwaul you would think the federal government is perpetually short of funds – which it is because congress never controls their spending addiction.
There is a further inherent risk when dealing with large dollar amounts like those in taxes, the federal budget and the national debt. Their very magnitude makes the numbers surreal. For what it is worth, one million is one one-thousandth of a billion. And, one billion is one one-thousandth of a trillion. At this level, one could easily lose several billion dollars in a mathematical rounding error. Those lost dollars are dollars best kept out of the hands of congress and the bureaucrats and in the hands of families trying to pay for college or a mortgage. Those lost dollars should not be laundered by the government. Why should we trust congressmen and senators to toy with these dollars as if they were playing Monopoly?
How big is “big?” Maybe that is the wrong question. The real question is: How much is enough?
Dennis M. Patrick can be contacted at P. O. Box 337, Stanley, ND 58784 or (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).