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Wednesday, April 30, 2025

DENNIS PATRICK: DEMOGRAPHIC DILEMMA

Take note of the number “2.1.” That is the fertility rate of live births per woman needed to sustain any nation’s stable population – no growth, no decline, just even. For many developed nations this number became critical decades ago and these nations are ageing fast.

More than a jest, the US has already reached this breakeven point. Other nations have fallen seriously below the number that would otherwise sustain them: US 1.62; Canada 1.48; Europe overall, 1.38; Japan, 1.32; Germany 1.25; Russia, 1.14; and South Korea, which has fallen below 1.0.

Demographers note a correlation between a deterioration in the post-Christian era’s values and a drop in the birthrate in Western civilization. The Apostle Paul spoke of faith, hope, and love as Christian virtues that must endure. Where these qualities have declined in the face of a more secular society, so has the birth rate. Across Europe in particular, churches are reduced to tourist attractions and museums instead of places of worship.

Western culture faces an urgent challenge. The biblical command to “be fruitful and multiply” (Genesis 1:28) has been overshadowed by individualism and materialism. Declining birth rates reflect a drift toward dissipation. Personal ambitions often overshadow communal responsibilities thereby eroding a cornerstone of our society, namely, strong families. In Western society, many people see children as obstacles to career advancement or personal fulfillment. In contrast, the older Christian tradition celebrated life and family as essential to human flourishing. “Children are a heritage from the Lord, offspring a reward from him” (Psalm 127:3).

In the end, this devaluation of the family undermines communities and puts pressure on social systems. Rebuilding Western civilization must begin with an attitudinal shift toward restoring the cultural importance of family. Certainly, the remedy requires more than state policy adjustments or technological solutions. It demands a spiritual and cultural revival -- a renewed commitment to God’s design for life, family, and community.

Greater life expectancy complicates matters. Anticipated average life expectancy worldwide increases from 74.7 years in 2025 to 77.4 years by 2055 (UN data). Western nations and the US have higher life expectancies. A declining population of young workers will need to support the aging generations, straining health care systems, social programs, and economic stability. Medical technology may reflect progress in medicine, but it also imposes greater pressure on younger generations.

Add to this mix another factor. Host nations facing this demographic crisis are inevitably plagued by socialist-inspired governance, excessive national debt, and a stagnant economy. Who will support such systems?

Countries faced with this demographic dilemma often turn to mass legalized immigration. An unintended consequence of this policy, however, provides an incentive for mass illegal immigration as well.

A large influx of legal and illegal immigrants moving into host nations to supply their dire need of labor do not come from countries with similar civilizational backgrounds. Virtually all are from Africa, the Middle East, and Asia with the highest fertility rates being Niger, Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, and Afghanistan. These countries themselves are experiencing massive population growth. Many of the immigrants are ill-educated and from societies who are philosophically, religiously, and ethnically opposed to the values of the host nation. When these immigrants refuse to assimilate, societal havoc results. They create their own sub-cultures where their birth rates are more than double or even triple that of the host population. Care to guess the leading boy’s name in Berlin and parts of England? Mohammed.

Today we see the shredding of unique cultures. This unavoidable consequence awaits any nation or society that willingly relinquishes its identity to subjugating outside forces it so willingly imports.

 

Dennis M. Patrick can be contacted at (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

 

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