Dakota Beacon

You think the weather last winter and spring was memorable? Prepare for more of the same. Old Man Winter has us in his cross hairs. Gather your heavy coats, mittens, and snow shovels because the start of winter is just a few weeks away. It could be a stormy season for parts of the United States.

We last experienced a La Niña weather pattern in the spring of 2023. That La Niña officially ended in 2023 after an unusually long three-year run. Following that, the climate shifted into an El Niño or neutral phase until late 2024.

In early 2025 a new La Niña formed. How strong the system remains to be seen. Nevertheless, cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean foretell the arrival of a notable winter. Bitter cold is forecast to invade the Northern Plains, Midwest and the Great Lakes in December through early February with above average snowfall and below normal temperatures. The bitter cold should prolong the above average snow cover well into spring.

One member of AccuWeather’s forecasting team, Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, said that after this coming winter, some people might think about moving away from Chicago. That’s strong talk from a professional meteorologist. Snow accumulation for Minneapolis ranges from 48 to 55 inches. Chicago’s forecast varies from 32-38 inches. Of course, before the snow and cold gets to Minneapolis and Chicago it must first pass through Montana and North Dakota.

The long-range meteorological forecast is based on substantive data. A well-established weather pattern known as the El Niño - La Niña cycle brings variable weather patterns to the United States. This weather pattern occurs in the Pacific off the coast of South America, thus the Spanish names. La Niña means “Little Girl” and occurs as the opposite or reverse weather pattern of the El Niño. El Niño means “Christ Child” because the seasonal pattern begins around Christmas time.

For centuries South American fishermen recognized the fluctuation of warmer and cooler waters along the coast of Peru and Ecuador. Not until the 1920s did British meteorologist Sir Gilbert Walker name and record the fluctuations. He theorized that the association between water temperatures and atmospheric conditions created cyclical weather patterns leading him to conclude what he dubbed the Southern Oscillation of El Niño - La Niña effect.

The La Niña part of the cycle produces the volatile wet weather pattern we experienced during winter and spring 2023. This same weather pattern is apparently preparing to reassert itself again this winter if assessments are anywhere near correct.

La Niña occurs when sea surface temperatures along the equator in the central and eastern Pacific fall below normal. Conversely, warmer sea surface temperature occurs in the western Pacific. It is believed that La Niña results from the increased strength of the normal trade wind circulation. Typically, the trade winds drive warm Pacific surface water westward to the regions of Indonesia and Australia. This movement allows cooler water to well up along the South American coast. Why these winds increase in strength is not completely understood. The amount of cooler Pacific water moving toward South America reduces the air temperature and generates winds along the coast.

The effect on the northern hemisphere is the crux of the matter for us. Changes in the tropical Pacific, both in water temperature and in trade wind circulation, induces wide fluctuation in the jet stream in the middle latitudes. These changes alter the course of the jet stream crossing the United States. Such a shift in the jet stream results in a wide variation in the strength and location of storms. In other words, radical changes in the atmosphere and jet stream cause radical variation in temperature and precipitation across North America. These changes may last for several months.

Storms resembling bookends are on tap for the central and eastern US, with the biggest storms expected around the opening and the final weeks of the season. Early on, winter storms will track from Canada into the Midwest before pushing toward the mid-Atlantic and New England. By late winter, the storm track is expected to shift, bringing systems from the Plains and Mississippi Valley into the Appalachians and Northeast.

It’s uncommon for meteorologists to use hyperbole in their forecasts. Snow and cold would seem simple enough to describe winter in the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Nor should meteorologists  treat the forecast glibly: “Whether it’s cold or whether it’s hot; we will have weather, whether or not. So, keep smiling.”

Time will tell, but we should know soon enough just how accurate the AccuWeather team is. We can’t change the weather. But forewarned is forearmed.

Incidentally, the 2025 meteorological winter starts on Monday, December 1. Astronomical winter (the solstice) occurs at 10:03 am EST on Sunday, December 21.

Dennis M. Patrick can be contacted at (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).