DENNIS PATRICK: LARGE NUMBERS BLUR THIS SMALL MIND
How big is “big?” How much is 100? 1,000? I cannot begin to visualize these numbers much less envision a million of anything!
Suppose a couple celebrates 18,262 days of married life. This is a big number, but we usually state it more conveniently as fifty years of marriage – a golden wedding anniversary.
Large numbers stated relative to a recognizable quantity help to clarify. In other words, compare a large number to some recognizable point of reference to aid in comprehension.
Fiscal year (FY) 2025 is about to end, and FY 2026 begins. The federal budget contains numbers, big numbers, that will be bandied about without the slightest comprehension.
Suppose we want to better understand a large quantity of money – for example $1.0 trillion. One way is to transpose money into time because most people have some general sense of passing time. For the sake of argument, let one dollar equal one second. Sixty seconds make up one minute and 60 minutes make up one hour. So, in one hour there are 60 seconds X 60 minutes or 3,600 seconds. A 24-hour day would yield 24 hours X 3,600 seconds per hour, or 86,400 seconds in a day. Most folks get the hang of it.
Continue with our example. Divide 1,000,000 seconds (1 million seconds represents $1 million) by 86,400 seconds in a day result in a figure of 11.6 days. Remember, we are trying to conceive of dollars in terms of a comparable amount of time. Therefore, 11.6 days is the amount of time comparable to $1 million if one dollar equals one second.
Carry the example to the next level. Divide 1,000,000,000 seconds (1 billion seconds represents $1 billion) by 86,400 seconds per day which them produces 11,574 days – or 31.7 years (11,574 divided by 365 days in one year equals 31.7 years). That is the equivalent of $1 billion translated into time consistent with our example.
Finally, if we divide 1,000,000,000,000 (1 trillion seconds representing $1 trillion) by 86,400 seconds per day, our arithmetic produces an astounding result. The quotient is 11,574,074 days or 31,710 years – in other words, a little more than 317 centuries. To state our example in comparable terms, if one dollar was the equivalent of one second, $1 trillion would compare to 317 centuries!
Approached from a different perspective but still using simple arithmetic, anyone can run their own analysis making large numbers somewhat comprehensible. The results are eye-opening. Check for yourself.
A billion minutes ago is about the time Jesus lived.
A billion hours ago mankind lived in the Stone Age.
A billion days ago no-one walked on two feet.
From this vantage point a discussion of the federal budget and the tax dollars to support it takes on real substance. We begin to understand how big “big” is.
Politicians and TV talking heads glibly toss around dollars in terms of billions and trillions. Do they think we are stupid?! Where do they think all the “bacon” comes from that they “bring home” districts and states?
There is a lot of loose money floating around Congress. Just ask the DOGE folks. This is our money – yours and mine. If left in the hands of our congressmen and senators, it is at risk. Listening to our politicians speak lightly of the big bucks they oversee, the risk becomes obvious. They would much rather take our money and spend it on vote-buying projects rather than take less money and conserve it. To hear them caterwaul you would think the federal government is perpetually short of funds – which it is because Congress has a spending addiction.
There is a further inherent risk when dealing with large dollar amounts like those in taxes, the federal budget, and the national debt. Their very magnitude makes the numbers surreal. For what it is worth, one million is one one thousandth of a billion. And one billion is one one thousandth of a trillion. At this level, one could easily lose several billion dollars in a simple mathematical rounding error. Those lost dollars are dollars best kept out of the hands of Congress and the bureaucrats and in the hands of families trying to pay a mortgage or put food on the table. Those lost dollars should not be laundered by the government. Why should we trust politicians to toy with these dollars as if they were playing Monopoly?
How big is “big?”
Wrong question.
How much is enough?
Dennis M. Patrick can be contacted at (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).