Dakota Beacon

            Can you trust political polling? Not if your life depended on it. And, it just might.

            Why is political polling such big news? It is likely that a constant drumbeat over time of poor polling results for a candidate could have a negative effect for them and, inversely, a positive effect for their opponent(s). In the end, the only important poll is the one held on Election Day.

            Beyond a doubt, polling is effective when done correctly. Commercial polling for marketing purposes advanced to a fine art generating billions of dollars in sales of goods and services. Political polling not so much. Too many intangible variables tend to garble the message and skew the results.

            Does anyone believe that presidential polls this far out will reflect the outcome of the election? More to the point, will political polling sway the electorate substantially this early in the campaign? Consider previous poll projections. Then, you decide.

2000 Election

            MEDIA FICTION: “The seesaw race between Al Gore and George W. Bush has cast a spotlight on the sizeable number of voters still up for grabs—about 30 percent…these swing voters prefer Gore to Bush by 37-28 percent…” Pew Research, 10/30/2000, just days before the election.

            FACT:

            George Bush                         Popular Vote             47.9%             Electoral College      271

            Al Gore                                   Popular Vote             48.4%             Electoral College     266

2004 Election

            MEDIA FICTION: “A Kerry Landslide?” by Chuck Todd, Washington Monthly, 5/1/2004. In that article Todd states, “If you look at key indicators…such as high turnout in the early Democrat primaries and the likelihood of a high turnout in November—it seems improbable that Bush will win big. More likely, it’s going to be Kerry in a rout.” Furthermore, the day before the election a Battleground poll indicated Kerry beating Bush 50.7% to 48.6%.

            FACT:

            George Bush                        Popular Vote             50.7%             Electoral College     286

            John Kerry                             Popular Vote             48.3%             Electoral College     251

2008 Election

            MEDIA FICTION: Two months before the election (9/8/2008) the UK Daily Telegraph reported “A USA Today/Gallup…gave Mr. McCain…a staggering 10-point lead among likely voters.” Again, in the UK Daily Telegraph of the same date John Zogby, pollster, is quoted, “At this point, it looks as if Obama’s more on the ropes than McCain.”

            FACT:

            Barack Obama                      Popular Vote             52.9%             Electoral College     365

            John McCain                        Popular Vote             45.7%             Electoral College     173

2012 Election

            MEDIA FICTION: “Romney 49%, Obama 48% in Gallup’s Final Election Survey.” Gallup, 11/5/2012. Both Rasmussen and Gallup had Obama and Romney in a dead heat just prior to the elections. This according to the National Council on Public Polls as reported by CNN.

            FACT:

            Barack Obama                      Popular Vote             51.1%             Electoral College     332

            Mitt Romney                         Popular Vote             47.2%             Electoral College     206

2016 Election

            And now for the kicker, the election Democrats have been trying to overturn for three years.

            MEDIA FICTION: Most embarrassing headline from the New York Times, 10/18/2016: “Hillary Clinton as a 91% Chance to Win.” NYT went on to say “…at this point, even a large polling miss would not be enough for Mr. Trump to win.” Newsweek did the NYT one better. “Clinton’s odds of securing the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the Presidency at more than 95 percent and by a margin of 118 Electoral College votes…The results mirror other Electoral College projections, some of which estimate Clinton’s chance of winning at around 90 percent.” 10/15/2016. The magazine even printed a President Hillary issue with Clinton’s picture on the cover that they had to recall after she lost.

            FACT:

            Donald Trump                       Popular Vote             46.1%             Electoral College     304

            Hillary Clinton                       Popular Vote             48.2%             Electoral College     227

            Space constrains tabulating more examples. Gallup, Rasmussen, Marist, Reuters/Ipsos, Monmouth, Quinnipiac have all generated bad data. Yet, these are the sources of news stories.

            Let there be no doubt that the mainstream media is campaigning for their presidential candidate. Gone are the days of so-called objective reporting. The media objective today is to suppress voter turnout for the candidate they oppose (Trump for example) and reinforce the liberal candidate of their choice. Let the voter beware.

Let not your heart be troubled. The American voter is not stupid. Woe to politicians who believe otherwise and base their campaigns upon this faulty premise.

Dennis M. Patrick can be contacted at (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).