Dakota Beacon

            Interest in China has skyrocketed ever since President Trump broke out of the globalist mold and engaged China on trade and military issues. To gain an understanding of how China intends to eclipse the United States economically and militarily as a world power, three books are worth reading. These include “Bully of Asia: Why China’s Dream is the New Threat to World Order” by Steven W. Mosher (2017) and “The Coming Collapse of China” by Gordon G. Chang (2001).

            The third book by scholar and China expert Michael Pillsbury offers a very readable and quite insightful book published in 2016 titled “The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower.” Of the three books, Pillsbury’s book was most practical and explicitly written.

            Michael Pillsbury’s speaks with authority. He serves as the director of the Center for Chinese Strategy at the Hudson Institute and has served in eight presidential administrations. Educated at Stanford and Columbia, he served as an analyst with the Rand Corporation. He held senior positions in the Defense Department and on the staff of four US Senate committees. Pillsbury speaks, reads, and writes Mandarin fluently.

            “The Hundred-Year Marathon” delves into the critical issue of who is making policy in the Chinese government and what is the basis for their thinking. Hawks within the Chinese government have been advising their leaders as far back as Mao Zedong. They seek to avenge a century of humiliation. Advice to their leaders has been to replace the United States as the economic, military, and political leader of the world by the year 2049 (the one hundredth anniversary of the Communist Revolution). This plan has become known as “the Hundred-Year Marathon,” thus the title of Pillsbury’s book.

            The US does not see China the way China sees herself. Years ago the Chinese leadership persuaded Westerners to believe that China’s rise would be peaceful and not at the expense of others. In fact, China follows a strategy just the opposite. Pillsbury details five erroneous assumptions upon which the US bases its China policy. He sees these as dangerously wrongheaded. The five include 1) engagement with China brings complete cooperation, 2) China is on the road to democracy, 3) China is a fragile flower, 4) China wants to be just like us, and 5) China’s belligerents, or hawks, are weak.

            China’s approach to US policy finds its underpinnings in what is called the “Thirty-six Stratagems.” These are taken from an essay found in ancient Chinese folklore. The stratagems are designed to defeat a more powerful opponent by using the opponent’s strength against him without his knowing he is even in a contest. Rather than military application, these stratagems apply to politics, diplomacy, and espionage. You don’t have to be a German to grasp the ideas of Clausewitz. Likewise, you don’t have to be Chinese to grasp the importance of the “Thirty-six Stratagems.”

            The “Thirty-six Stratagems” underlie the thinking behind the nine principle elements that actually form the basis for the Hundred-Year Marathon. Succinctly, five of the nine principles specify 1) induce complacency to avoid alerting your opponent, 2) manipulate your opponent’s advisers, 3) be patient – for decades or longer – to achieve victory, 4) steal your opponent’s ideas and technology for strategic purposes, and 5) military might is not the critical factor for winning a long-term competition.

            Pillsbury’s assessment would not be complete without recommendations on how the US might win a Cold War with China. The US won a Cold War against another foe with a collection of programs and tactics garnering bipartisan support. “One idea for doing that…is for policymakers to recognize the achievements of China by adapting its wisdom and strategies for themselves.” He proceeds to outline twelve steps for winning such a competition.

            Pillsbury documents “Marathon” copiously with sixty-nine pages of footnotes. This includes an eye-opening amount of declassified information. To keep his work current he provides an update to the paperback edition with a detailed afterword.

            It is clear from Pillsbury’s account that China is not a capitalist wannabe intent on a peaceful rise in the community of nations. China’s ambition to surpass the US is hiding in plain sight and they will use any tactic to succeed.

            Wary of outside interference in America’s 2020 election? Red China stands out as the number one nominee. Cluster bombs of disinformation will eagerly or ignorantly be spread through social media as well as a gullible mainstream media. Count on it.

Dennis M. Patrick can be contacted at (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).