Dakota Beacon

“Water, water everywhere, but not a drop to drink.” So reads a line from Samuel Taylor Coleridge’s poem The Rhyme of the Ancient Mariner. The mariner who shot an albatross (symbol of good fortune) brought misfortune to his ship and crew.

Winter and spring 2019 brought record amounts of precipitation to the plains states. Snow melt followed by heavy spring rain contributed to substantial flooding.

Precipitation in the Midwest through March 2019 was “well above normal” ranking the third wettest winter since 1895. For the southeast 2019 was the fourth wettest winter on record. The southern plains were also wetter than usual.

Every major river in plains states reached flood stage during May and will probably remain high for weeks. Much of the plains states’ acreage remain unplanted.

“Global warming! Climate Change!” cry the Chicken Littles on the left.

Not so fast. There are other reasonable explanations. What are the rational alternatives?

One well-established weather pattern is the El Nino - La Nina cycle also known as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This weather pattern occurs in the Pacific off the coast of South America, thus the Spanish names. La Nina means “Little Girl” and occurs as the opposite or reverse weather pattern of the El Nino. El Nino means “Christ Child” so named because the seasonal pattern begins around Christmas time.

For centuries South American fishermen recognized the fluctuation of warm and cool waters along the coast of Peru and Ecuador. Not until the 1920s did a British meteorologist, Sir Gilbert Walker, identify and record the fluctuations. He theorized that the association between water temperatures and atmospheric conditions created cyclical weather patterns leading him to conclude what he dubbed the Southern Oscillation or El Nino - La Nina effect (shortened to ENSO).

A subset of the ENSO weather pattern is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Whereas the ENSO may vary over a year or more, the MJO is a major fluctuation of tropical weather on a weekly to monthly timeline. It is an eastward moving pulse of cloud and rainfall near the equator caused by the Jetstream.

Cutting to the chase, the ENSO results in the wet weather pattern we currently experience in the US.

ENSO signals cooler than normal temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean and warmer temperatures in the west. It is believed that ENSO results from the increased strength of the normal trade wind circulation. Typically, the trade winds drive warm Pacific surface water westward to the regions of Indonesia and Australia. This movement permits cooler water to well up along the South American coast. Why these winds increase in strength is not completely understood. The amount of cooler Pacific water moving toward South America reduces the air temperature and generates winds along the coast.

The further result of the oscillation of the cooler water moving to the South American coast and the warm water to the west increases the high cloud buildup in southeast Asia producing wetter than normal conditions over Indonesia and Australia during the northern hemisphere’s winter.

Turning attention to the northern hemisphere focuses on the crux of the matter for the US. Changes in the tropical Pacific both in water temperature and in the trade wind circulation induces wide fluctuations in the jet stream in the middle latitudes. These fluctuations of the Jetstream crossing the United States from west to east determines rainfall patterns. Such a shift in the Jetstream results in a wide variation in the strength and location of storms. In other words, radical changes in the atmosphere and jet stream cause radical variations in temperature and precipitation across North America. These changes can last for several months.

Looking back over the years, forecasts of the ENSO predicted harsh winters and spring floods. News stories in the winter and spring of 2019 foretold weather extremes to come. Severe storms for the plains and higher temperatures for the southeast sparked flooding in some areas and drought and wildfires others. The Central Plains saw more storms, precipitation, and flooding. The news stories were right on target.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is constantly monitoring the ENSO and MJO in an attempt to forecast their impact on the US. Currently, the ENSO is forecast to continue its impact through the summer and maybe even into early winter.

So much for the prognosticators’ claim of manmade climate change. These oscillations have been causing severe weather for centuries. To believe manmade climate change was responsible for the current spate of severe weather is silly. One might just as well believe in misfortune brought on by shooting an albatross. The scientific meteorological explanation of ENSO and MJO makes much more sense.

Dennis M. Patrick can be contacted at (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).