Dakota Beacon

WATER, WATER EVERYWHERE…”

 So reads a line in Coleridge’s “The Rhyme of the Ancient Mariner.” The mariner who shot an albatross (symbol of good fortune) brought misfortune to his ship and crew.

Winter 2011 brought record amounts of snow to Minot, Williston and other parts of North Dakota. In addition, the record snow contained record amounts of moisture contributing to flooding with the spring melt.

Then came the spring rain bringing misfortune to many.

Every river in North Dakota reached flood stage during May and will remain high for weeks. For the first time ever the Garrison Dam spillway drained excess water from Lake Sakakaweja. The soil is saturated and the water table is high. Who hasn’t had water in their basement? Beyond that, possibly as much as one third of North Dakota’s acreage remain unplanted.

“Global warming, global warming,” cries Chicken Little.

Not so fast. What might be other reasonable possibilities? What are the rational alternatives?

One well-established weather pattern is the El Nino - La Nina cycle. These weather patterns occur in the Pacific off the coast of South America, thus the Spanish names. La Nina means “Little Girl” and occurs as the opposite or reverse weather pattern of the El Nino. El Nino means “Christ Child“ because the seasonal pattern begins around Christmas time.

For centuries South American fishermen recognized the fluctuation of warmer and cooler waters along the coast of Peru and Ecuador. Not until the 1920s did a British meteorologist, Sir Gilbert Walker, identify and record the fluctuations. He theorized that the association between water temperatures and atmospheric conditions created cyclical weather patterns leading him to conclude what he dubbed the Southern Oscillation or El Nino - La Nina effect.

Cutting to the chase, the La Nina portion of the cycle produces the wet weather pattern we currently experience.

La Nina signals cooler than normal temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean and warmer temperatures in the west. It is believed that La Nina results from the increased strength of the normal trade wind circulation. Typically, the trade winds drive warm Pacific surface water westward to the regions of Indonesia and Australia. This movement permits cooler water to well up along the South American coast. Why these winds increase in strength is not completely understood. The amount of cooler Pacific water moving toward South America reduces the air temperature and generates winds along the coast.

The further result of the cooler water moving to the South American coast and the warm water to the west increases the high cloud buildup in southeast Asia producing wetter than normal conditions over Indonesia and Australia during the northern hemisphere’s winter. This would account for the severe flooding in Queensland, Australia in recent months.

Turning attention to the northern hemisphere focuses on the crux of the matter for us. Changes in the tropical Pacific, both in water temperature and in the trade wind circulation, induces wide fluctuations in the jet stream in the middle latitudes. This alters the course of the jet stream crossing the United States. Such a shift in the jet stream results in a wide variation in the strength and location of storms. In other words, radical changes in the atmosphere and jet stream cause radical variations in temperature and precipitation across North America. These changes can last for several months.

Looking back to the summer of 2010, forecasts of the La Nina predicted winter extremes and spring floods. One story carried in USA Today 10/22/2010 foretold weather extremes in 2011. Reduced precipitation and higher temperatures for most of the southern United States would spark drought and wildfires. The Northern Plains, however, would see more storms, precipitation and flooding. This story was right on target.

So much for the prognostication of manmade global warming. One might just as well believe in misfortune brought on by shooting an albatross as in anthropogenic climate change. I prefer the science of the meteorological explanation of Southern Oscillation.

Dennis M. Patrick can be contacted at P. O. Box 337, Stanley, ND 58784 or (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).