Models are just that – models, prototypes, mathematical equations based on stated or unstated assumptions. Models receive data in the form of variables and then compute projections. If the left-hand side of the equation does not replicate reality, the right-hand side can only represent gibberish. GIGO -- garbage in, garbage out. Pity the public upon whom such projections are bestowed. That is where we are with the Wuhan virus shutdown.
Models must be scrutinized for errors in assumptions, data selection, or abuse in application. Too often a missing perspective or context will skew the outcome. I have some familiarity with modeling outcomes. In 1987 my boss and I, working for AGS Management Systems, marketed project management software to Dr. Fauci.
Reflect on these numbers. We don’t know the number of people who will contract the Wuhan Flu. Wild guesses range from 0.02% to 0.8%. We do know that 98% of those who catch it will recover. Contrast this with declining model estimated death tolls of 2.2 million, then 240,000, then 100,000, then 81,000. Any deaths are sad. Compare this to the 2018-2019 flu death toll of 34,200 and the 2017-2018 flu death toll of 61,000. In 2019 US deaths from all causes totaled 8,782 daily. Do people die with or from the Wuhan Flu? Models count “from” regardless of other underlying illnesses.
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