Can you trust political polling? Not if your life depended on it. And, it just might.
Why is political polling such big news? It is likely that a constant drumbeat over time of poor polling results for a candidate could have a negative effect for them and, inversely, a positive effect for their opponent(s). In the end, the only important poll is the one held on Election Day.
Beyond a doubt, polling is effective when done correctly. Commercial polling for marketing purposes advanced to a fine art generating billions of dollars in sales of goods and services. Political polling not so much. Too many intangible variables tend to garble the message and skew the results.
Does anyone believe that presidential polls this far out will reflect the outcome of the election? More to the point, will political polling sway the electorate substantially this early in the campaign? Consider previous poll projections. Then, you decide.
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