Dakota Beacon

First things first. To speak of demography, the word must be defined. Demography is the statistical study of human populations. It focuses on measuring and analyzing characteristics such as population size, age structure, distribution, and changes over time, especially through births, deaths, and migration.

Second comes an introduction to Mark Steyn, a polarizing public figure widely read by supporters for his critiques of Western culture and demographics. Mark Steyn is a Canadian author, columnist, and broadcast commentator best known for his work in political and cultural commentary. He was born in 1959 in Toronto, Canada and has worked primarily in Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Steyn began his career as a music, theater, and film critic. He is the author of several books, including America Alone, After America and Lights Out. He has been a frequent guest host and commentator on various media programs including The Rush Limbaugh Show and Fox News.

Now for the crux of the discussion. On January 4, 2006, The Wall Street Journal published Steyn’s first draft of what would become the thesis of his bestselling book, America Alone. The article title summed it up: “It’s the Demography, Stupid: The Real Reason the West is in Danger of Extinction”. Opening paragraph: “Most people reading this have strong stomachs, so let me lay it out as baldly as I can. Much of what we loosely call the Western world will not survive this century, and much of it will effectively disappear within our lifetimes including many if not most Western European countries. There’ll probably still be a geographical area on the map marked as Italy or the Netherlands – probably -- just as in Istanbul there’s still a building called St. Sophia’s Cathedral. But it’s not a cathedral; it’s merely a designation for a piece of real estate. Likewise, Italy and the Netherlands will merely be designations for real estate. The challenge for those who reckon Western civilization is, on balance, better than the alternatives is to figure out a way to save at least some parts of the West.”

Steyn’s argument is clear. His article, and books that follow, drive home a point. The western world is going out of business because it’s given up having babies. The 20th century welfare state, with its hitherto unknown concepts such as spending a third of your life in “retirement”, is premised on the basis that there will be enough new citizens to support the old ones. But there won’t be.

His explanation follows. “When it comes to forecasting the future, the birthrate is the nearest thing to hard numbers. If only a million babies are born in 2006, it’s hard to have two million adults enter the workforce in 2026... And the hard data on babies around the Western world is that they’re running out a lot faster than the oil is. Replacement fertility rate -- the number you need for merely a stable population, not getting any bigger, not getting any smaller -- is 2.1 babies per woman. Some countries are well above that. The global fertility leader, Somalia, is 6.91, Niger 6.83, Afghanistan 6.78, Yemen 6.75. Notice what those nations have in common?

“Scroll way down… and you’ll eventually find the United States hovering just at replacement rate with 2.07 births per woman. Ireland is 1.87, New Zealand 1.79, Australia 1.76. But Canada’s fertility rate is down to 1.5, well below replacement rate; Germany and Austria are at 1.3, the brink of the death spiral; Russia and Italy are at 1.2; Spain 1.1, about half replacement rate.”

Steyn then turns his observation to Islam which “…sportingly volunteered to be the children we [the West] could not be bothered having ourselves.” He continues, “The design flaw of the secular social-democratic state is that it requires a religious-society birthrate to sustain it. Post-Christian …rationalism is… a lot less rational than Catholicism or Mormonism. Indeed, in its reliance on immigration to ensure its future, the European Union has adopted a 21st-century variation on the strategy of the Shakers, who were forbidden from reproducing and thus could increase their numbers only by conversion.

“That didn’t work out too great for the Shakers, but the Europeans figured it would be a piece of cake for them… As long as you kept the immigrants coming, there would be no problem. To avoid collapse, European nations will need to take in immigrants at a rate no stable society has ever attempted.”

Steyn then asks, “Can a society become increasingly Islamic in its demographic character without becoming increasingly Islamic in its political character? This ought to be the left’s issue… Why then, if your big thing is feminism or abortion or gay marriage, are you so certain that the cult of tolerance will prevail once the biggest demographic in your society is cheerfully intolerant?”

Steyn concludes with this final observation, “Can these trends continue for another 30 years without having consequences? Europe by the end of this century will be a continent after the neutron bomb: The grand buildings will still be standing, but the people who built them will be gone. We are living through a remarkable period: the self-extinction of the races who, for good or ill, shaped the modern world.”

Our political leaders seem nonplussed about today’s demographic trends. But history will likely see demography as the biggest story of our time. Read Mark Steyn’s book America Alone for an enhanced perspective.

Dennis M. Patrick can be contacted at (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).