Dakota Beacon

Over the years The Passing Scene discussed the El Niño – La Niña weather phenomenon and its effect on the US. This year the US will experience a Super El Niño.

A Super El Niño refers to a potentially strong warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which could trigger widespread global weather disruptions and record-high temperatures.

But first, “What is El Niño?”

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It is the "warm phase" of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, with the opposite “cool phase” being La Niña, which features cooler-than-average waters. The terms "El Niño," referring to "the little boy" or “Christ Child” in Spanish, and “La Niña” meaning “Little Girl”, was originally used by South American fishermen to describe warm waters appearing around Christmas time. Our discussion will focus on the El Niño.

During El Niño, weakened trade winds blowing from east to west allow warm water to move eastward, disrupting normal upwelling of colder water and altering atmospheric circulation. This well-established weather pattern influences rainfall, temperature, and storm patterns across the US.

For centuries (long before the Industrial Revolution) South American fishermen recognized the fluctuation of warmer and cooler waters along the coast of Peru and Ecuador. Not until the 1920s did British meteorologist Sir Gilbert Walker name and record the fluctuations. He theorized that the association between water temperatures and atmospheric conditions created cyclical weather patterns leading him to conclude what he dubbed the Southern Oscillation of El Niño - La Niña effect.

The effect on the northern hemisphere is the crux of the matter for us. Changes in the tropical Pacific, both in water temperature and in trade wind circulation, induces wide fluctuation in the jet stream in the middle latitudes. These changes alter the course of the jet stream crossing the United States. Such a shift in the jet stream results in a wide variation in the strength and location of storms. In other words, radical changes in the atmosphere and jet stream cause radical variation in temperature and precipitation across North America. These changes may last for several months.

A super El Niño is likely to appear between May and July 2026 and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-2027. This year’s super El Niño has been rated the strongest in 140 Years.

What makes this year’s El Niño a super El Niño? A super El Niño is one of the most powerful climate events on Earth, capable of reshaping global weather patterns across continents in a relatively short period of time. This year's super El Niño has drawn global attention due to unusually high sea surface temperatures and its widespread extreme weather effects, including droughts, floods, and shifting seasonal patterns that affect millions of people worldwide.

Unlike typical El Niño cycles, a super El Niño intensifies atmospheric changes disrupting the Walker circulation (cited above) and imposing worldwide influence. These shifts can alter rainfall, temperature, and storm behavior on a global scale, making this event one of the most closely watched climate developments in modern history.

The development of a super El Niño begins with major disruptions in the Pacific Ocean's normal circulation. Trade winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm water to move eastward along the equator. This shift flattens the thermocline and reduces the upwelling of cooler, nutrient-rich water, leading to rising sea surface temperatures.

As this process continues, the Walker circulation weakens, altering the balance of atmospheric pressure across the Pacific. Rainfall patterns shift, often bringing dry conditions to regions like Southeast Asia while increasing rainfall along parts of the Americas. These changes are a major driver of extreme weather associated with El Niño events.

Super El Niño events do not stay confined to the Pacific. They reshape weather patterns across the entire planet. The result is a chain reaction of extreme weather events that can change ecosystems, agriculture, and daily life worldwide. Super El Niño alters the jet stream and pressure systems, redistributing heat and moisture across continents. Parts of North America may see wetter winters and stronger storms due to shifting atmospheric flow. Warmer oceans and altered wind patterns can influence storm intensity and hurricane development. Some regions may experience stronger storms, while others see changes in storm frequency.

It’s uncommon for meteorologists to use hyperbole in their forecasts. Snow and cold would seem simple enough to describe winter in the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. But, forecasting winter as “brutal snow and cold” makes one sit up and take notice.

Time will tell, but we should soon know the accuracy of the forecasters at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

We can’t change the weather. However, forewarned is forearmed. With a little notice we can do plenty to compensate for weather’s effects.

Dennis M. Patrick can be contacted at (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)