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Thursday, August 12, 2010

LYNN BERGMAN: NORTH DAKOTA CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS WELL AHEAD!

Recent poll data from Gallup reveal a stronger than expected prognosis for North Dakota candidates that convince voters that they are “Conservative Republicans”. On the flip side, those candidates that voters conclude are “Liberal Republicans” may well be at risk.

The results of the poll were examined and placed in the following format to provide clarity to the results. The matrix combines potential voters into two sets of criteria. The first criteria (top row of descriptors) identifies the percentages that are Republican, Democrat, Independent (leaning Republican), Independent (leaning Democrat), and Others (those so disinterested or disillusioned that they rarely vote). The second criteria (left column descriptors) identify those that label themselves Conservative, Moderate, Liberal, and Other.

2010 Political Matrix of North Dakota

 Independent

                                Rep        Dem       Lean R  Lean D   Other    Total

Conservative     23.8%    9.4%      6.4%      5.6%      3.8%      49%

Moderate           6.5%      13.7%    6.4%      5.6%      4.8%      37%

Liberal                   0.5%      6.5%      1.4%      1.1%      0.5%      10%

Other                    0.1%      0.8%      0.8%      0.8%      1.5%      4%

Total                     30.9%    30.4%    15.0%    13.1%    10.6%    100%

 

Matrix Observations

49% of likely North Dakota voters describe themselves as Conservatives; 23.8% are Conservative Republicans, 12% are Conservative Independents, and 9.4% are Conservative Democrats. 10% of likely North Dakota voters describe themselves as Liberals; 6.5% are Liberal Democrats, 2.5% are Liberal Independents, and 0.5% are Liberal Republicans, perhaps an endangered political species!

The Mathematical Winning Combination

The combination of voters that most easily achieves a majority is those that term themselves either “Conservative” or “Republican”; these two criteria yield 60% of total voters (see below). The math says that a “Conservative Republican” has the best chance of winning this fall, almost twice the chance of a “Liberal Democrat”.

Republicans In Name Only (RINOs)

 

RINOs are few in number; the term “Liberal Republican” is practically an oxymoron, representing only 1% of potential voters. These “mice in the big tent” are scary to the elephants but the real problem begins to materialize when the “mice in the big tent” are placed on the ballot! RINOs in office, working clandestinely and/or openly with Democrats have damaged and could ultimately destroy the Republican Party “brand”.

 

Self-described political affiliation in numerical order by percent (excluding “Other” categories)

Conservative Republican                             23.8%

Moderate Democrat                                      13.7%

Conservative Democrat                                                9.4%

Liberal Democrat                                              6.5%

Moderate Republican                                   6.5%

Moderate Independent (R)                        6.4%

Conservative Independent (R)                  6.4%

Moderate Independent (D)                        5.6%

Conservative Independent (D)                  5.6%

Liberal Independent (R)                                 1.4%

Liberal Independent (D)                                               1.1%

Liberal Republican                                           0.5%

 

Conservative or Republican Total            60.0%

Liberal or Democrat Total                             32.6%

 

Three Republican Legislators Seriously at Risk This November

Three blatantly liberal Republican legislators are up for re-election this fall, Grand Forks Senator Ray Holmberg, Rugby Representative Jon Nelson, and Dickinson Representative Nancy Johnson. Even if ALL three were defeated, it is very likely that Republican challengers to incumbent Democrats will more that make up for such losses. The days of Republicans that honor the Democrat platform may be numbered.

So Why Would Anyone Run as a Liberal Republican?

The answer is simple… a candidate with a liberal voting record that chooses to run as a Republican wishes, above all, to get elected in a predominately Republican district where the term “Democrat” is somewhat toxic to getting elected.

So-called “Liberal Republican” Officeholders and “Liberal Republican” Candidates, along with their Liberal Democrat and Liberal Independent friends (in total, representing only 10% of North Dakota voters), are limiting freedom and promoting socialism  in America. The Republican party must do what the Democrat party does to increase the possibility of success, invite all citizens to join the party (the “big tent”) but select candidates that adhere to the party platform.

Education and Enlightenment

The best way to reveal politicians that are less than honest concerning their political views is a comprehensive voting analysis that reveals their votes on the measureable issues of the day.

The November 2009 issue of the Dakota Beacon revealed such a study. It is posted on the Dakota Beacon website for you viewing. Where an incumbent’s voting record does not agree with your personal political philosophy, it is suggested that you first become active in the Party of your choice and run alternative candidates in the candidate selection process. If that does not solve the problem, take a good look at the opposite party’s candidate in the November 2010 election. Only if this process of self-education is followed by voters, will the “party affiliation fraud” continue.

“Leave Us Alone” vs. “Takings Coalition”, the battle for Freedom in America

For further clarification of the two forces at work in America today, read Grover Norquist’s book “Leave Us Alone”. Used copies are available on the internet for under $5, including shipping; just do a search by typing “Leave Us Alone Grover Norquist”.


How did the three incumbent Democrats get into the U.S. Congress?

One of the old wives tales of politics is to vote Democrat for national offices to get the most “pork” and vote Republican for local offices to keep taxation low. During the last ten years, however, this philosophy has resulted in huge unintended ramifications for North Dakotans. North Dakota local and state legislative officeholders have grown government beyond sustainable levels and national officeholders from both parties have almost run our country into the ground with deficit spending. A call for defeat of all incumbents in Washington DC is logical with very few exceptions.

My advice to North Dakotans is the same as I was given by my own father…understand the two political platforms and vote for individual candidates that uphold the platform you believe in.

Final words

I would much rather call an honestly liberal Democrat “friend” than a dishonest liberal calling himself or herself a Republican… “Honesty” is much more important to me than political philosophy!

Click here to email your elected representatives.

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